Set Puzzle Probabilities

This table shows approximate probabilities of ending up with different numbers of Sets among 12 randomly chosen Set cards. We chose 12 cards a million times, and counted the number of Sets each time.
Number of Sets Number of Occurrences Approximate Probability In other words
0 32430 3.2% 1 in 30.8
1 145770 14.6% 1 in 6.9
2 261464 26.1% 1 in 3.8
3 272410 27.2% 1 in 3.7
4 179171 17.9% 1 in 5.6
5 79899 8.0% 1 in 12.5
6 23333 2.3% 1 in 42.9
7 4683 0.5% 1 in 214
8 693 0.07% 1 in 1443
9 114 0.01% 1 in 8772
10 30 0.003% 1 in 33333
11 2 0.0002% 1 in 500000
12 1 0.0001% 1 in 1000000
13 0 0.0% * 0
14 0 0.0% * 0

* It's possible to get 13 or 14 Sets; it just didn't happen during our run of a million trials.


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